Power Rankings: Sectional edition
As a way of predicting how I see the team standings looking at this weekend’s sectional tournaments, I’m releasing my newest Power Rankings: Sectional edition. This is my best estimation of how each team will fare based on the amount of wrestlers that I see placing from each. The order might not be exact when it’s all said and done, but I think this is a pretty good indication of what the top 10 will look like in Division 1, and the top five in Division 2.
I’m in Manhattan covering the Giants parade for the day, but the D1 seeding meeting will take place tonight. Those will be up by early tomorrow at the latest, depending on when I receive them. Check back for those later.
Division 1
1. Fox Lane – I’m sure some will try to make the argument that the Foxes won’t win their fourth section title in five seasons, but I just don’t see how you can bet against them. By my count, Fox Lane has eight wrestlers who could very easily place, and three who are the front-runners for section titles (Sam Speno at 126, Danny Ventura at 132, and Matt Pasqualini at 160). The dynasty isn’t over yet.
2. Somers – The Tuskers will be relying heavily on a few big names, but if they take care of business, a second-place finish isn’t out of reach. The Realbutos (Dylan at 113, and Brian at 152) look like pretty sure bets for section titles, and Dom DeVita is in prime position for a title at 220 pounds. No team other than Fox Lane should be able to boast three champs, plus Somers has a likely finalist in Nick Giancaspro (195), and one or two others who could also place.
3. North Rockland – If one of Somers’ Big Three falters, the Red Raiders should jump up to the two-spot. They have at least five guys that look like good bets to place, plus a ton of a depth. They should do damage in wrestle backs. But the one question is whether or not any Red Raiders will breakthrough and win a title. Blaise Benderoth (106), Matt Caputo (126), and Mike Caputo (145) look like they should make the finals, but I have each ranked second in their respective weight classes. If one wins, North Rockland probably leapfrogs the Tuskers.
4. Mahopac – Behind North Rockland and Somers, the fourth spot is up for grabs among about four or five teams. I’m giving the Indians a slight edge because of their two likely champs (Jake Srednicki at 138, and Mike Spinelli at 195), plus a slew of other guys who should be in the mix for fifth or sixth place finishes. This team has been consistently improving all season, and I expect that trend to continue at sectionals.
5. Brewster – The Bears are a huge wild card in this whole thing. They have some quality depth and a strong chance for a section title from Mike Parise (106). Liam Erickson could also be considered a section title favorite now that New Rochelle’s A.J. Barbaria is out of the field at 120 pounds. There are quite a few others with the potential to place, and that will ultimately be the difference for Brewster. They’ll need those other guys to come up big if they want to jump into the top three.
6. Yorktown – This may seem a bit high for the ‘Huskers, but when you do the math, it all starts making sense. Yorktown only qualified six guys, but five of them are strong bets to place – Jimmy Kaishian (120), Joe Mastro (145), Steven Sabella (170), Thomas Murray (182), and David Varian (285). Mastro and Sabella will be in the mix for titles, while Murray and Varian look like they should each place second. That’s a lot of potential points.
7. New Rochelle – The loss of a section title favorite in A.J. Barbaria will really hurt the Huguenots. A.J.’s younger brother Nick is a heavy favorite at 99 pounds, but others will need to step up for New Ro to crack the top five. Tyler Lilly (220) lost to Somers’ Dom DeVita in OT at Eastern States, so he could provide a big boost if he avenges that loss to win a title. The other guy who could boost the Huguenots’ standing is Aaron Butler (170). If healthy, he’d a good bet for a title, but there’s no way of knowing how that shoulder will hold up.
8. Arlington – While the Admirals probably don’t have any section champs, they do have a bunch of guys who will be in the mix to place. Alfredo Olmedo (99), Nick Tolli (106), and Brendan Nunziata (170) are the first names who come to mind, but top-to-bottom this is one of the deepest teams in the section.
9. Scarsdale – You can call the Raiders, “The Best of the Rest.” I think the top eight is pretty clear, but Scarsdale is a team that figures to finish in the top 10. We all know about Jacob Berkowitz (182), who is a defending champ and should repeat, but others such as John Tambunting (132) and Jack Braun (170) are in strong position to place.
10. Hen Hud – The Sailors round out the top 10 in large part because of two likely finalists in Phil Siegel (160), and Sean Barry (285). Siegel lost to Pasqualini earlier in the season, so it wouldn’t be fair to call him a favorite, but Barry certainly is. Guys such as Kevin McDermott (132) and Josh Perlmutter (145) are also in the mix to place.
On the fringe: John Jay-EF, Suffern, Tappan Zee.
Division 2
1. Nanuet – The race for first in D2 is about as close as it gets. When I tried to do the math and figure out point totals for the Golden Knights and Edgemont, it literally came out exactly the same. Both teams have about 10 guys who I can easily see placing, and both have three who look like they should win section titles. For Nanuet, that would be Vinny Skokos (106), Anthony Calvano (120), and Dan Breit (195), but there are about four others who could make the finals, most notably the Dillon brothers (Joe at 99, and Matt at 138). If anyone of them breaks through, it could give the Golden Knights a decided edge.
2. Edgemont – Realistically, the Panthers probably have about a 50-50 chance of winning an overall title, but someone had to take second. With the Aslanians (Tyler at 99, and Trey at 113), and Daniel Kornberg (220), Edgemont has multiple section title favorites. Sky Korek (113) and Jack McCormack (145) also look like finalists, but the Panthers might need one or two more to step up for them to win a title. In total, I think the Panthers will have more wrestlers place than other team.
3. Croton-Harmon – The Tigers look like they should have the third spot locked up if they take care of business. They’ll place more wrestlers than any team other than Nanuet and Edgemont, which is a credit to the depth they’ve developed. David Occhipinti (132) is Croton’s best bet for a title, with D.J. Frederich (120) and Chris Kraft (195) also right there.
4. Pleasantville – After winning a section title two years ago, the Panthers took a step back last season. This season, they seem to be heading back in the right direction. Obum Anyichie (285) should win a section title, but there are others who could make names for themselves this weekend. Stephen Paternostro (113) and Graham Williamson (126) come to mind. There are a number of teams in the mix for this spot, but Pleasantville is as good of a bet as any.
5. Ardsley – This would give us three teams with the Panthers as their mascot in the top five. Drew Longo (126) has always been the big name for Ardsley, but this is an up-and-coming program. Jonah Gerstel should be in the mix for a title at 106 pounds, and I could possibly see about four other guys placing.
On the fringe: Irvington, Pawling, Putnam Valley.
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Nice job Vincent. My only knock is the suggestion that Jake Srednicki at 138 is a “likely champ”. I think Tom Grippi of Fox Lane would differ with your assessment. They split head to head this year and Tom has a signature win against your #2 at 145 Mike Caputo. I don’t think Jake has a win of that magnitude. All in all, I think this will be the “can’t miss” match of the weekend and it is a “pick-um”. Good luck to all section qualifiers!!
How do you make an educated guess on d1 without seeing the seeds and brackets?? Just because a kid is ranked 1 by you doesnt mean they wont be 3-4 seed. Things may change after seeing the brackets tonight.
Just because a kid is a 3 or 4 seed has no indication of how they will finish. Seeds are indeed different than rankings, none the less a kids ranking is more indicative of their projected finish, rather than their seed in lue of the point system. A 4th ranked wrestler can garner more quality points if he beats kids who have placed in d2, then a first ranked wrestler who has wrestled less competition but is clearly better.
Vincent could have phrased it differently by saying Srednicki was a ” likely finalist” or “co-favorite”
or he could leave it as is because it’s just his opinion. Either way, the match between Srednicki and Grippi should be a great one.
Btw, in my opinion, Speno is a likely winner at 126 though Caputo might take exception to that
Can’t wait to see seeds
cya
phil
No disrespect to Caputo who is quite good but 126 is not up for grabs unless Speno breaks a leg or some other key body part. I don’t see anyone even scoring a point unless they are cut from bottom. Just my opinion!
I didn’t say I took exception, I said Caputo might
I also used the term Vincent did to make my point
I have Speno winning states, beating a very very good Passaro in the finals.
PS…Caputo and his Coach both believe he has a chance to beat Speno. That’s a good attitude to have !
cya
you can make an educated guess from the preliminary seeds i would think. I mean you can look up the head-to-heads, you have the points from divisionals, you go from there. not a perfect science but should give you a good idea
My two cents on this topic… The seeds will be a good indication of who has easier potential paths to the finals, but I don’t believe that will change who the favorites are. The cream will rise to the top, which is why I felt comfortable putting these rankings out now. A guy could get upset if he runs into a bad matchup, which is why old skool’s point is valid, but I don’t see any of the guys I mentioned completely falling off of the grid. As I said, I’m sure this won’t be the exact order of how teams finish, but I think it will be pretty close. This is basically how they should finish if my weight class rankings hold true, which certainly is not a given.
None of this will matter by this time next week, but I think it’s fun to speculate and spark some conversation. Plus I’ve got so much stuff coming in the next few days, I thought these rankings would be a nice way to break up an otherwise quiet Tuesday.
True dat !
cya
D1 sectionals seeds are done, when do you think you will have them Vince?
They’re up: http://wrestling.lohudblogs.com/2012/02/07/division-1-sectional-seeds/
Ardsley lets do it for D2 Sectionals!! Its gonna be a fun weekend!!
How many wrestlers per weight class advace to wrestle on Sunday?
eight
i think 6 no ? 4 semifinalists and two wrestle back winners ?
first round Semi’s
then losers wrestle consi-semis
winners go for 3rd ,losers for 5th on 4 mats
then 2 mats for finals